JCPOA: US-Iran Relations Since 2015. Dangerous Future Trajectories

What is the JCPOA?

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, was a landmark agreement finalized in July 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 countries — the United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia, China, and Germany — along with the European Union. The goal was to ensure that Iran’s nuclear program remained exclusively peaceful, in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions that had crippled Iran’s economy for years.

Key Features of the JCPOA

The JCPOA laid out specific measures to curb Iran’s nuclear program:

Iran agreed to reduce its enriched uranium stockpile by 98% and restrict enrichment levels to no more than 3.67%, far below the 90% required for weapons-grade material.
The number of operational centrifuges was reduced from 19,000 to about 6,000, with only 5,060 permitted for uranium enrichment.
Iran agreed to convert the Fordow nuclear site into a research center with no enrichment activities.
The Arak heavy water reactor was redesigned to limit its capacity to produce plutonium.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was granted unprecedented access and monitoring rights to verify Iran’s compliance.
In exchange, Iran gained access to billions of dollars in frozen assets and was reintegrated into the global financial system.

Peace Prospects Under JCPOA

Initially, the JCPOA was celebrated as a diplomatic victory with immense potential for stabilizing the Middle East. It was seen as a model for resolving international conflicts through dialogue rather than military intervention. The deal also offered hope for Iran’s integration into the international community and the possibility of broader cooperation on regional issues.

Why Did the Trump Administration Withdraw?

In May 2018, the Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA, despite verification from the IAEA that Iran was complying with the deal’s terms. President Trump and his administration cited the agreement’s failure to address Iran’s ballistic missile program, its regional activities in Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, and the expiration clauses that allowed Iran to gradually expand its nuclear program after certain timeframes. The administration argued that the deal was fundamentally flawed and insufficient to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear threat.

Repercussions of the US Withdrawal

The US withdrawal had significant and far-reaching consequences:

Sanctions Reimposed: The Trump administration reinstated crippling sanctions on Iran, targeting oil exports, banking, and critical sectors.
Economic Crisis in Iran: Iran faced severe inflation, currency devaluation, and widespread poverty, sparking nationwide protests and unrest.
Iran’s Defiance: Iran gradually scaled back its compliance with the JCPOA, enriching uranium to levels beyond the agreed 3.67%, and expanding its centrifuge capabilities.
Regional Instability: The Middle East saw rising tensions with incidents such as attacks on oil tankers, drone strikes on Saudi oil facilities, and the US assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in January 2020.
Strained US-European Relations: The US withdrawal strained relations with European allies, who remained committed to preserving the deal and engaged in complex diplomatic efforts to keep Iran in compliance.

US-Iran Relations Post-Withdrawal

Since the US withdrawal, relations between Iran and the United States have deteriorated dramatically. The Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign aimed to isolate Iran and force it into renegotiating a more stringent deal. Iran responded by adopting a confrontational posture, expanding its nuclear activities and increasing its regional influence through proxy groups.

Under President Biden, there was initial optimism about reviving the JCPOA, with indirect talks held in Vienna throughout 2021 and 2022. However, mutual distrust, domestic political challenges, and Iran’s increasing nuclear activities — including uranium enrichment up to 60% purity — complicated efforts. The rise of Iran’s hardline government under President Ebrahim Raisi further limited diplomatic flexibility.

Recent Developments

In 2023 and early 2024, diplomatic efforts to revive the JCPOA faltered. Iran continued to advance its nuclear program, leading to growing concerns from Israel, Gulf states, and Western powers. At the same time, Iran has strengthened strategic ties with Russia and China, positioning itself as part of a broader geopolitical axis challenging US influence.

The US has increased sanctions targeting Iranian drone exports, which were reportedly used by Russia in the Ukraine conflict. There have been increased naval confrontations in the Strait of Hormuz and proxy clashes in Iraq and Syria.

In January 2024, Iran’s enrichment levels neared weapons-grade thresholds, prompting the IAEA to issue severe warnings. European signatories have begun discussions about triggering the dispute resolution mechanism in the deal, and Israel has hinted at preemptive military action if diplomatic solutions fail.

US President Donald Trump’s outreach to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, aimed at discussing a potential new nuclear agreement, signifies a strategic effort to prevent direct military engagement, as highlighted by US special envoy Steve Witkoff. This initiative followed Trump’s announcement on March 7 that he had sent a letter to Iranian leaders proposing talks on nuclear activities while warning of military repercussions. Khamenei, however, dismissed the offer, calling the US approach that of a “bully.”

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi criticized the letter as an implicit threat and stated that Tehran would not engage in talks unless Washington shifts its coercive approach.

Trump further heightened tensions by warning Iran against supporting the Houthis in Yemen, particularly after the group began targeting Israel in response to Gaza-related hostilities.

In light of continued US airstrikes on Yemen, Trump reaffirmed that Iran would be held responsible for any Houthi-led attacks, disregarding Iran’s assertion that the Houthis operate autonomously.

Distrust toward US commitments persists following Trump’s 2018 decision to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and reimpose severe sanctions on Iran. In response, Iran has increased its uranium enrichment levels to 60 percent, approaching the threshold for weapons-grade material. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has reported that Iran now holds enough fissile material for several nuclear weapons, though it has not taken steps toward weaponization.

Although Trump has signaled willingness for renewed talks since resuming office, his administration’s reinforcement of the “maximum pressure” strategy continues to hamper diplomatic efforts.

The Future of US-Iran Relations with Trump’s Return

With Donald Trump returning to power in 2025, the future of US-Iran relations is uncertain and potentially volatile. Trump’s administration is expected to continue its hardline stance, emphasizing economic isolation and maximum pressure.

Diplomatic Challenges: Trump’s return is likely to reduce the possibility of rejoining or renegotiating the JCPOA under conditions Iran would accept.
Regional Escalation: Tensions may rise, with the risk of increased military confrontations between US forces and Iranian proxies in Iraq, Syria, and the Gulf.
Nuclear Risks: Without a diplomatic framework, Iran could push forward toward nuclear weapons capability, triggering a potential crisis.
European Dilemma: European nations may face a tough choice between aligning with US policies or pursuing independent diplomacy.

However, Trump’s unpredictable style may also open room for surprise negotiations, especially if Iran’s actions threaten broader US interests or global security.

Conclusion

US-Iran relations since the signing of the JCPOA have been a story of cautious optimism turning into deep mistrust and confrontation. The unilateral withdrawal by the Trump administration created ripple effects that continue to shape the geopolitical landscape. With Trump back in power, the possibility of escalation looms large, though the complexities of international politics might still open doors for negotiation. The stakes remain incredibly high — for regional stability, non-proliferation, and global peace.

References

Katzman, K. (2019). Iran Sanctions. Congressional Research Service.
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Reports (2015-2024).
Fitzpatrick, M. (2016). The Iran Nuclear Agreement: Prospects and Challenges. IISS.
BBC News. (2018). “Donald Trump withdraws US from Iran nuclear deal.”
Al Jazeera News. (2023-2024). Coverage on US-Iran nuclear talks and recent developments.
Al Jazeera News. (2025). US wants to negotiate with Iran on nuclear programme: US envoy
The New York Times. (2024). Reports on Iran’s nuclear program progress.
Reuters. (2024). “Iran’s uranium enrichment and international reactions.”